Updated 13 October: Leslie is on his way north, and the image on the right from Aemet shows quite how close he came to us even though no meteorologists ever predicted a direct hit. Nonetheless, the Met Office says that the hurricane’s proximity means that we can expect rain tomorrow because it has created a great deal of humidity which will be drawn back to us as rain by northerly winds.
I say “the hurricane” because despite projections of the storm losing force and becoming a tropical cyclone as it weakened, it has kept its strength, and as a result, Madeira and especially Portugal are now on alert for strong gales, torrential rain and very heavy seas. Our own seas here are not going to escape the effects either, and will be rougher than usual, so please exercise great care in the water even though all appears now largely to be over for us as far as Leslie is concerned. The current range of models for the projected direction of Leslie are below.
Updated 10pm: The Canarian Government says tonight that its Security and Emergencies Board is continuing to monitor the trajectory of Leslie though meteorological forecasts show it moving away from the islands, and indeed the latest projection shows it going even further north than Cadiz and entering Spain through Lisbon (see left, click to enlarge). The DGSE says that we can expect to see rain, wind and heavy seas this weekend but in line with normal autumnal weather, and below the levels at which Aemet would issue an alert. The Government nonetheless asks the public to pay attention to any alerts that might be issued should the situation change over the next 24-48 hours.
Updated 4pm: The latest and firmest so far projection from the Hurricane Centre via Aemet within the last half hour is for Leslie not to turn towards the Canary Islands, which remain completely outside of its influence. Obviously this can change, but so far we are looking good.