The following are updates (latest first) on the current situation while Brexit negotiations take place. At present nothing is confirmed, with everything still to be determined through the two-year process. Please also see HERE for general thoughts on the situation of British residents of Tenerife.

Updated 24 February: The Prime Minister has said that the vote on her Brexit deal will take place on 12 March, just 17 days before the UK leaves the EU unless Article 50 is revoked (which the UK can do unilaterally) or the UK requests a Brexit delay (which requires the consent of all other EU member states).

The vote will take place a day before the Cooper-Letwin amendment is placed before the House: if Theresa May’s vote succeeds then her deal will be accepted and the Withdrawal Agreement in place; if her vote fails then either the amendment will suceed and she will be required by Parliament to request a delay, or the amendment itself will also fail and nothing will then stand between the UK and a hard Brexit.

This is what the ERG (and DUP) want, of course, and so they have a difficult decision to make. If they vote against Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement, the Cooper-Letwin amendment could succeed, especially with the new central Independent Group formed by the disaffected from both Labour and the Tories. And if C-L succeeds, Brexit will be delayed, possibly permanently, assuming the EU26 agree. But if the ERG climbs down and votes for the Withdrawal Agreement after all simply to get some form of Brexit, they will be getting a deal that is in their own words the “worst of all worlds”.

Meanwhile, Michel Barnier is voicing a clearly growing concern in EU and Westminster circles that lurking in the chaos of the final weeks, days, and hours, during which the Article 50 clock continues relentlessly ticking away, is a No Deal By Accident Brexit, one in which everything failed except the inexorable countdown to the point at which the UK is no longer a member of the EU regardless of any attempts to stop, delay or alter the process.

The Ides of a month in the Roman calendar were, generally, the central days. They were fatal both for Julius Caesar and for the Roman Republic. We won’t have too long to wait now to find out how they pan out for the United Kingdom.

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